Winter Major Compendium Predictions
Since the winter major is right around the corner and all we want from life are hats, we thought we’d share our compendium predictions for the tournament.
We’ve based most of our predictions on statistical likelihood - we’ve looked at the performance of heroes, teams and players in the last patch. Yet, for some predictions we’ve used our own judgment because we expect some shifts in the performance of heroes or teams – remember that each major forms its own meta.
(Bear in mind that in order to be included in an average stat, a hero must be picked at least 5 times.)
Our first three choices are rather standard: Venge is unlikely to get first phase banned a lot, which makes her a top contender for the most picks (Invoker and Gyro are good alternatives). We expect the most banned and highest win rate hero to remain the one and only Dwayne “The Rock” Johnson.
The choice for highest Kill average goes to Ursa – the question here is whether the hero would be picked at least 5 times, but we believe it will. Good contenders are Clinkz and new and improved OD.
The highest assist average goes to Spectre thanks to her global ult, although it’s a tough choice between her and Zues. Yet, we believe she would see a sharp increase in popularity and success in Shanghai, while we expect Zeus to be mediocre and to lose a bit more games.
For least deaths we go for Morph in the hands of Sylar, while for all the farm stats we go with the unsurprising AM (he is a comfort pick for lots of carry players and is bound to see some action).
The “most kills in a game” category is extremely random and any snowballing carry is a good choice, but we hold faith in the potential of a Blink Dagger Tiny.
Our favorite for this tournament is Ehome – the team is looking extremely impressive lately. Nonetheless, there is an old tradition of the overall favorite NOT to win Valve events, so tread lightly.
Since we believe they would do best, it is logical to also pick them for some other categories – highest kill average, shortest game and team that picks most different heroes (Lanm preserving the old DK spirit and making Mushi proud).
The “in a game” stats are extremely random and any pick there is a reasonable choice. For most kills we’ve gone with Liquid, least deaths with LGD (Sylar Morph + defensive supports), most assists – EG. Longest game goes to Secret who are very likely to pick Ember at some point, get Rapiers on him and defend for hours against mega creeps (hopefully successfully). Following a similar logic (Secret’s love for 4 protect 1 and rat Dota), we’ve chosen the team for highest game length average as well.
Our choice for least different picks is Archon. At first glance Alliance seems like a more logical choice, but they are actually likely to play a lot more games than Archon, which gives them a lot more opportunities to pick different heroes.
The player stats are quite hard to predict because a minute difference in performance could easily change the rankings. The general logic is that the players of the team with the highest win rate would have the best chances to have extremely high stats. Consequently – our choice for highest kill average and highest GPM average is CTY.
For most Kills in the game and most GPM in a game we’ve gone with the EG playmaker Sumail and farmer Arteezy, believing in their ability to snowball extremely hard at least once.
Sylar is our lowest death average choice thanks to his love of Morphling, although the Ehome carry is also a good choice.
For highest assist average we’ve gone with S4 because of his habit to be the playmaking position 3 in the mid lane for his team and be very actively. Nonetheless, this is a risky pick since more aggressive teams are more likely to average higher assists and Alliance are not known for their YOLO play style. Another good option would be an active player from Ehome like Kaka or even any of the two “old” guys.
For most assists in a game we’ve gone with Moon – we had to include an OG player somewhere.
We’ve given highest last hit average to Sylar – LGD are very likely to turn to a passive farming oriented play style for this tournament because this is what they are comfortable with.
Highest last hits in a game goes to the Ember of EE sama (an additional non-compendium prediction: he would lose the game in which he gets most last hits).
Lastly, we’ve chosen Fear for player that picks (we assume this means plays) the most different heroes. There are other logical choices like Mushi, but they are unlikely to go very deep into the tournament, which would give Fear more opportunities to play different characters.
The most boring stats come last. Here we’ve simply chosen the numbers we think are most reasonable, yet there could be some extreme games that ruin quite a lot of these predictions.
We hope this brings you lots of hats, GL!
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